Leeds United are 14th in the Premier League, with four wins from their 18 games so far leaving them two points above the relegation zone. Phil Hay, Leeds United writer for The Athletic, provides the expert view before Brentford’s meeting with the Whites on Sunday.
What have you made of what you’ve seen since the last meeting in September?
It’s been very difficult. That game in September was followed by a long interlude with the postponements that followed the death of the Queen, but at that point, Leeds were still in relatively good fettle.
They had had a decent run through August without being perfect; they lost at Brighton, but had beaten Chelsea and taken seven points from the first three games – and there was a feeling they were starting to gather momentum under Jesse Marsch.
The Chelsea game had drawn a bit of a line under the Marcelo Bielsa era and people had finally found a way to move on from that and focus on what was going on in the here and now.
That defeat to Brentford, however, marked the beginning of a sharp and sustained slide after a good start, culminating in late October, when the away fans were turning on Marsch after defeats at Leicester and Fulham.
Given the history of the Premier League and the way managers are treated in it, you really did wonder whether he would survive.
Leeds kept themselves afloat with a really big win at Liverpool and a really scrambled win at Bournemouth, which kept them going into the World Cup break, but it has been difficult on the other side of it.
They haven’t picked up many points since the restart, though the fixture list hasn’t been overly kind – they started with Man City at home and Newcastle away.
There just is a general lack of impetus and it’s why they are in that clutch of clubs at the bottom of the table.
With the league – and I felt this under Bielsa last year – it really wouldn’t take much in the way of a sustained run of good form for them to open up some clear water and some really handy breathing space at the bottom. But when you’re two points off 20th place, you can’t pretend you’re not in trouble.
I think a lot of people raised eyebrows when Marsch said after the Villa game that Leeds weren’t in a relegation battle, particularly because Brendan Rodgers was asked exactly the same question and he said they are absolutely in one.
Arom Marsch’s point of view, the results have got to start coming soon.
There were reports of mutiny in the dressing room in the last week, with Marsch addressing them following the 5-2 win over Cardiff on Wednesday night and labelling them ‘awful’. How much truth do you think there was in those reports?
He was very vehement about that and addressed it without being asked specifically, which makes you realise it’s on his mind and he has either been made aware of it or he has seen it himself and taken serious Umbridge with it.
From speaking to people, the mood in the dressing room is a little low because the results aren’t great and they haven’t been winning many games, but I don’t get the sense there is mutiny at all.
I think Marsch was entitled to say what he said on Wednesday and I don’t think, in some of the performances, you’ve seen a downing of tools. In fact, against Villa last Friday night, it was the opposite and they played extremely well.
They have a big problem defensively at the moment, there’s no doubt about that. That is the thing Marsch is going to have to address if he’s going to hang on in this job.
When it came to the attacking play and the style, it was very much what he was looking for and it was as well as they’d played in quite a long time.
So, to say the dressing room is abandoning him is a bit of a cheap shot, but I don’t think it’s unfair in any way to say he is under big pressure and he does look like he’s on thin ice.
Leeds have stood by him and been very supportive and they resolved, after the weekend, to press on with him and keep him in the job, but you know how it goes in this division – he’s almost a year in the job and, in this division, you cannot have sustained poor form indefinitely. There has to come a point where people feel it’s clicking and it’s moving forward properly.
Maximilian Wober and Georginio Rutter have been brought in so far this month, with the latter the club’s record signing. Are Leeds looking to recruit further in what remains of the January window?
They are thinking about a centre mid and they are credibly linked with Azzedine Ounahi, the Moroccan World Cup player who plays for Angers. The issue with Ounahi is that, prior to the World Cup, he’d have cost about £10 million, but post-World Cup, he’s going to be coming in at £20-25m, if there’s a substantial bidding war for him.
There’s an issue at Leeds at the moment where there’s a very close split in shares between Andrea Radrizzani, the current chair and majority shareholder, and 49ers Enterprises, who are the minority shareholder, but in the process of trying to do a takeover.
So, every transfer raises discussions about who pays the initial instalment and who picks up the costs further down the line. Does the incumbent owner want to share that cost? It gets quite complicated and I think, at the moment, they are biding their time and still deciding exactly what they are going to do.
A left-back and a forward were the two things they really wanted in this window.
Wober, to most people’s minds, is more of a left-sided centre-back, though he has played quite a bit at left-back, while Rutter is, without doubt, a forward and a very interesting prospect.
The issue in midfield is that they have let Mateusz Klich go off to DC United in the MLS, so it does leave them a man down in that area. So, if they could do Ounahi and they had the money to do it, they’d be happy to bring him in.
Which player should Brentford fans be keeping an eye on?
Without a doubt, Wilfried Gnonto. His first goal against Cardiff was an absolute beauty – Paolo Di Canio-esque. That speaks of, firstly, his talent, which is starting to look more and more exciting, but also just of the confidence he has come to England with.
The interesting thing with Gnonto was that he was only signed in August because Leeds tried to get Cody Gakpo from PSV and Bamba Dieng from Marseille, but neither of those happened in the last 24-48 hours of the window.
They had a deal in place with Gnonto to come from Zurich, but the idea was for him to come in a later window. This has become a bit of a stick to beat them with and there was a feeling that he wasn’t necessarily Premier League ready.
To be fair, I think they were just striking a cautious tone about an 18-year-old who was playing in Switzerland, but while Leeds could see the talent in him, I think everybody underestimated the speed of the impact he was going to have.
Gnonto looks so dangerous. He’s very powerful, but very intelligent and skilful and knows exactly what to do with the ball. Even though there’s a club-record signing coming through the door in Rutter, in no way is he going to find somebody like Gnonto easy to shift.
How is Marsch likely to set up his side at Elland Road?
Prior to the World Cup, it was, fairly religiously, 4-2-3-1. Marsch did rotate between systems last season when they were desperately trying to get out of trouble.
Latterly, it has been more of a 4-3-3, which, in theory, lets Leeds drop to three at the back when they are attacking and lets one of the full-backs, usually on the right side, push up a little bit further to add to the bodies in midfield and further up the pitch.
That gives them more width, which they just don’t have in this set-up as they are a very narrow team.
I suppose, as well, three across the middle, rather than a defensive two, should protect the flanks a little bit more, which is where Leeds are most vulnerable and have been throughout Marsch’s tenure.
Brentford ran out 5-2 winners earlier this season, avenging the 2-1 defeat on the final day of last term. What’s your score prediction for this one?
They do tend to be good, lively games and I think I read more into the 5-2 than the 2-1 on the final day, which was one of those last-day epics, where Brentford didn’t have anything on the line and Leeds had everything.
Prior to the last Brentford game, Leeds had been looking pretty solid defensively and the record was good; they shipped five that day and were defensively awful and the downturn at the back has been really obvious since then.
They are running a rate of two concessions per game at the moment, which is too many and will cost you too often.
I feel like that will probably be the most influential factor on Sunday. I think there will be goals, it will be lively, open and finish 2-2.