Brentford host Nottingham Forest on Saturday in the late Premier League kick-off, live on Sky Sports (5.30pm).
Thomas Frank’s side, without a win since a 3-1 victory over Luton Town on 2 December, are boosted by the return of talismanic striker Ivan Toney, who is available again having served an eight-month ban from football.
Frank confirmed in his pre-match press conference that vice-captain Toney will start and lead the side out at Gtech Community Stadium in Christian Nørgaard’s absence.
Pre-match Analysis
Alex Lawes, Playmaker Stats: Toney’s return can rectify Brentford’s expected goals underperformance
As we move into the second half of the 2023/24 Premier League campaign, there is a fair bit riding on this weekend as Brentford welcome Nottingham Forest to Gtech Community Stadium.
The Bees are sitting just three points above the bottom three and the relegation places, a point behind their upcoming opponents, after a five-match losing streak in the Premier League.
Their FA Cup third-round replay defeat in extra-time to Wolverhampton Wanderers in midweek compounded a difficult spell for the Bees that has seen them record just one win in their last 10 matches across all competitions.
At the start of that run, Brentford were getting into a similar groove to the one which saw them finish ninth in the table last season, two points outside of the European spots. However, an injury and availability crisis has majorly contributed to their dip in form – which is why, despite a loss to Wolves flattening the mood ever so slightly, this could be a big week for the west Londoners.
The arrival of Sergio Reguilón on loan has helped add numbers and quality at the back and Kristoffer Ajer's return from injury is also a boost. Undoubtedly the biggest fillip, though, is Ivan Toney's availability after his long suspension from the game.
The 27-year-old striker, who has notched 68 times in 124 appearances for Brentford, will hope to be the difference in improving the Bees’ expected goals underperformance.
So far this season, Brentford have an expected goals for of 34.77xG from their 19 matches. However, in reality, they have notched just 26 times. Their 8.77xG underperformance is the third worst efficiency rate in the league, behind Everton and Chelsea.
Toney has consistently performed to more or less what his expected goals should have been. So, if the former Peterborough United man can come back and pick up where he left off then Brentford will have one of the most effective strikers in the league re-joining a side that are continuing to create chances.
They now face a Nottingham Forest team that limited Manchester United to an xG of 0.65 just before the New Year but prior to that, under Nuno Espírito Santo as well as Steve Cooper, had only managed to keep a team to fewer than an expected goals rate of one on just once in their previous 11 matches.
Brentford should, therefore, stand a really good chance of putting their poor run of form to an end if their performance level remains similar and their main attacking threat delivers the goods on his return.
Scout Report
Forest have fresh impetus following managerial change
Nottingham Forest’s extensive - and quite extraordinary - transfer business, where they brought in 29 first-team players across two windows, was the main topic of discussion last term.
The incredible squad turnover to retain the Premier League status they had pined for so long for was, maybe correctly, blamed when things took a turn in the opening months and the Tricky Trees slipped into the relegation zone, where they stayed until last January.
Steve Cooper was seemingly under intense pressure but rewarded with a new contract in October, with the foresight that things would improve, given the track record of his fledgling managerial career.
“It doesn’t mean we are going to win the next match and everything is going to be okay,” he admitted. “It has put an end to questioning and that is great.”
The risk paid off, even if Forest’s away form - one win, five draws and 13 defeats - was poor.
In late May, Cooper’s side beat Arsenal 1-0 to take the title away from the Gunners once and for all and also secure survival in the Premier League for themselves. “I’m really proud,” he said afterwards. “But if I’m honest, it just gives us a chance to keep building.”
The summer of 2023, naturally, saw plenty of movement in the transfer market for Forest. 10 first-team players arrived on a permanent basis and four came in on loan, while seven - including Jesse Lingard and Jonjo Shelvey - were released, seven were sold and 11 were sent out on loan. The recruitment team would, imaginably, have been ready for a holiday once the window slammed shut.
With fresh legs and a better idea of what it took to succeed at the top again, Forest made a solid enough start. They stormed into a 2-0 lead at Manchester United in their third league game, before succumbing to a 3-2 defeat, and then responded with a 1-0 win against Chelsea the next week - their first at Stamford Bridge since January 1995.
At the start of November, they beat Aston Villa 2-0 at the City Ground. Even with that result having ended a six-game winless run, Cooper and Co were still seven points better off than they were after the first 11 games of 2022/23.
It was a struggle to find positivity from the next month or so. Five defeats from the next six games followed the win over high-flying Villa - including a 5-0 thumping at the hands of Fulham.
Time is a precious commodity in the modern game and the writing was on the wall when Cooper had the rug pulled from beneath his feet on 19 December. “His achievement in guiding Forest back to the Premier League will undoubtedly remain an iconic moment in the club’s history,” owner Evangelos Marinakis said after the Welshman’s sacking was announced.
There were already murmurs ex-Wolves and Tottenham boss Nuno Espírito Santo was being lined up as Cooper’s replacement before his dismissal, and his appointment - on a two-and-a-half-year contract - was announced the following day.
The Portuguese’s first game in charge saw Forest end up on the wrong side of a five-goal thriller against Bournemouth, but they have since started to distance themselves from the battle against the drop with huge - and richly deserved - wins against Newcastle and Manchester United.
“We have the talent. It’s now about keeping on going,” the new boss said after the first of those wins. “We cannot stop on this game now. We have to rest and go again, but I think, slowly, we will achieve our own identity and the way we want to play football.”
The timing of the managerial change looks to have been executed to perfection, with the new manager bounce brought by Nuno giving them a brilliant start in their aim of securing another year in the top flight.
In the Dugout
Nuno Espírito Santo
Once signed by José Mourinho during his time at Porto, Nuno Espírito Santo had a long career as a goalkeeper - though often played second fiddle - primarily spent in Portugal and Spain, with time in Russia at Dynamo Moscow during 2005 and 2006.
Nuno retired in 2010, after his second spell at Porto, but quickly went on to become a goalkeeper coach at Malaga and then Panathinaikos, working with his former manager Jesualdo Ferreira each time.
He returned to Portugal to take on his first managerial role with Rio Ave in the summer of 2012 and remained at the club for two years.
He was then hired by Valencia, whom he guided to a fourth-place finish in La Liga in 2014/15, though he resigned less than four months into the following campaign after three defeats in their first five Champions League group matches, as well as five wins from the first 13 league matches, which left them languishing in ninth when he departed.
Porto decided to take a chance on their former player in 2016/17, yet he only saw out half of his two-year deal as the club opted to replace him the following summer after he failed to deliver silverware, despite losing only six of his 49 games in charge.
The 49-year-old is perhaps best known for the four years he spent at Wolves. He joined the club at the end of a chaotic 2016/17 campaign - during which they had three permanent managers - and led them to promotion out of the Championship at the first time of asking.
In 2019/20, Wolves recorded their joint-highest Premier League finish (7th), their highest points tally (59), as well as reaching the quarter-final of the Europa League.
Having left Molineux by mutual consent in June 2021, Nuno went to Tottenham and started well with three straight Premier League wins. Ultimately, he lasted only four months in the job, having followed up those victories with five defeats in the next seven.
He then spent 16 months in Saudi Arabia, guiding Al Ittihad to the Saudi Pro League title and Saudi Super Cup, and returned to England just before Christmas, having been sacked little over a month earlier.
The Gameplan
With Sarah Clapson of Nottinghamshire Live
Sarah Clapson, Nottingham Forest correspondent for Nottinghamshire Live, explains how Nuno Espírito Santo is likely to set up his side at the Gtech:
“He has mostly gone with a 4-2-3-1, which I suspect will be the case again against Brentford. It does depend on injuries and absences as they have got six players away at the Africa Cup of Nations, which has really affected his options.”
Read the full interview with Sarah Clapson here
Team news
Toney to start and captain Brentford against Forest
Brentford head coach Thomas Frank has confirmed that Ivan Toney will lead the side out against Nottingham Forest on Saturday.
The talismanic striker, who has scored 32 goals in 64 Premier League appearances for the Bees, is available again having served an eight-month ban from football.
“He’s buzzing like an eight-year-old boy who wants to go out and play his first football game – it’s pure joy,” said Frank.
“I’m looking into the eyes of a player who is very committed and very excited.
“I’ll break it now that he will start tomorrow, and he will also lead the team out of the tunnel as captain."
The Bees boss also confirmed that centre-back Ethan Pinnock will start against Forest having sat out of Tuesday’s night’s FA Cup defeat to Wolverhampton Wanderers.
Left-back Sergio Reguilón is available for selection having joined on a six-month loan deal from Tottenham Hotspur this week, while skipper Christian Nørgaard – as confirmed on Tuesday night – is sidelined for a short time.
Match Officials
England handed 16th Brentford assignment
Referee: Darren England
Assistants: Stuart Burt and Dan Cook
Fourth official: Thomas Bramall
Video assistant referee: Michael Salisbury
Additional video assistant referee: Nick Hopton
Saturday’s game will be Darren England’s 16th in charge of Brentford - the most of any team in the English pyramid.
The south Yorkshire official’s most recent Bees assignment was the 2-0 victory at West Ham United on 30 December 2022.
England has refereed 16 games this season, showing 88 yellow cards and three reds.
Last Meeting
Brentford 1 Nottingham Forest 1 (Premier League, 1 October 2023)
Brentford and Nottingham Forest shared the points on a contentious afternoon at the City Ground.
Following a tight first half, the game sparked into life either side of the hour.
First, Moussa Niakhaté picked up a second yellow card for a bad foul on Yoane Wissa, reducing the home side to 10 players.
From the resulting free-kick, Christian Nørgaard headed Brentford ahead only for Forest to equalise seven minutes later through Nicolás Domínguez.
Brentford piled on the pressure late on, but the hosts defended manfully to hang on for a point.