Chris Waugh, Newcastle United correspondent for The Athletic, takes us inside the Magpies camp ahead of Saturday’s Premier League meeting at St. James’ Park.
Newcastle are seventh in the Premier League with eight games played, which represents a vast improvement on last season, when they didn’t win their first match of the season until December. What have you made of what you’ve seen so far?
I think their position more accurately reflects their start to the season. If anything, they are probably three or four points short of what the majority of their performances have maybe warranted. I’d say in every match, except away at Brighton and at home to Bournemouth, they have been pretty impressive and have shown the way they are evolving under Eddie Howe.
Since they returned to the Premier League, Newcastle have been a low-block side who defend deep and then counter attack, but Howe has tried to shift them to press higher, have more possession and play with more intensity – and basically all attacking metrics are up and all the main metrics have improved.
That was until the weekend, when they should have beaten Crystal Palace. Bournemouth frustrated them and they did not play particularly well in that match, but then they went to Fulham – albeit they played against ten men for a long time – and the way they made sure they dominated and got the goals they needed was impressive. To do that without some of their best attacking players shows that the signs are very positive, certainly compared to a year ago.
They have the joint-best defensive record in the division as well, bettered only by Everton. How pleasing has that been to see, particularly given they only kept eight clean sheets in 2021/22?
It is impressive and, really, that change came about from January onwards.
In 2021, Newcastle conceded 80 Premier League goals, which is a league record in a calendar year. When Howe first came in, there were a lot of people, including myself, who were sceptical about how he would turn around the defence given that, at Bournemouth, his team conceded more than more than 60 goals in every Premier League season, so it seemed defence and being tight was not really his sort of thing. But, actually, he focused on that.
Newcastle brought in players in the January window and really started to build from the back. This year, they have maintained that defensive stability, while adding a bit more in attack as well, so that foundation is huge for them. Part of that is because they are seeing a lot more of the ball, they are trying to restrict opportunities for the opposition rather than defending deep and counter attacking, which is very, very positive.
While the club shelled out more than £120m in the transfer market this summer, Eddie Howe didn’t go wild and it seemed quality was prioritised over quantity. Do you think that suggests he is pleased with the squad he currently has at his disposal?
Howe would, ideally, have liked another one or two players. He definitely wanted a wide forward and would have liked another midfielder to have a bit of depth, but he was not really demanding that and there is an acceptance that it is going to take a couple of years before the whole level of Newcastle’s squad can be improved.
The first XI has improved significantly since the takeover, but maybe the depth is not quite there yet and that is what has maybe exposed them over the last few weeks when they didn’t have some of their attacking players. That will take time to build; they could not do that in two windows, one of which was focused on survival.
Yes, they would have liked more quality and more players, but, equally, part of the plan is for it to be semi-organic growth. Howe likes the group of players he has, he believes he can extract more from them and that they can finish in a strong position this year.
Which player should Brentford fans be keeping an eye on this weekend?
Allan Saint-Maximin is, seemingly, due to return this weekend – and he has been a big loss for Newcastle, particularly at home. Against Bournemouth, you were almost looking around for him to be the player who could do something a little bit different. He was absolutely magnificent against Manchester City earlier this season and put in one of the best performances from a Newcastle attacker in years. He has then been out injured for a few weeks, so if he has any sort of fitness, he will be key.
The other one is Callum Wilson. He returned last weekend, scored and should have another couple, but Newcastle are just a transformed side when he is there. He offers a focal point up front, works opposition defenders and he just really is a top-class operator.
How is Howe likely to set up his side at St. James’ Park?
It will almost certainly be a 4-3-3. That is how Newcastle play under Howe and they have done, pretty much exclusively, since Christmas time.
The side will probably be, depending on fitness: Nick Pope in goal; Kieran Trippier at right-back; Fabian Schar and either Dan Burn or Sven Botman at centre-back; and Matt Targett at left-back. There will be a midfield three of Bruno Guimaraes, Joelinton and Joe Willock. If Saint-Maximin is fit, he will be on the left, Miguel Almiron on the right and then Wilson through the middle.
The last meeting on Tyneside produced a thrilling 3-3 draw last November. What’s your score prediction for this one?
The 3-3 draw was fascinating because it was Howe’s first game that he could not actually be there for after catching Covid. At that point, you thought that was where Newcastle were going to be, scoring a lot of goals and conceding a lot of goals. I think it will be a difficult game and both teams will score, but I’m going for a 2-1 Newcastle win.